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North Mountain Ag Services

North Mountain Ag Comments June 24, 2019

NORTH MOUNTAIN AG COMMENTS Lean hog futures are under pressure as traders question whether short term US demand for fresh pork will keep up with domestic supplies. With industry hopes of increased exports becoming dimmer as global eyes are on the middle east, we are viewing live hog prices in the fourth quarter of 2019 being vulnerable. Corn field reports indicate that the crop is 2-3 weeks behind schedule in key US growing regions. While the coming weeks will determine the extent of yield impacts in key areas, it is fair to assume that earlier yield expectations will not be met this season. Soybean values, despite adequate global supplies, have moderate support as US producers strive to catch up despite weather concerns. The unknown in the global market right now is what Asian animal feed demand will look like...

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North Mountain Ag Comments December 20, 2018

NORTH MOUNTAIN AG COMMENTS December 20, 2018 Lean hog are seeking direction as production expectations point to large pork supplies. Traders are selling the market based on continued worries regarding US export opportunities. Trade reports indicate that ASF could be more prevalent in Asia than earlier thought, leading to a glimmer of optimism for world consumption in early 2019.   Corn futures are flat to slightly stronger as US harvest is only slightly behind the historical average. There are mold and toxin issues in many areas, resulting in firm basis projections for end users.   Soybean delivered prices are under pressure as weather continues to point to potential high South American yields in 2019. Soybean meal basis continues to weaken, although at a slower pace than the rest of the soy complex.   Feeder cattle prices are currently trading...

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North Mountain Ag Comments

NORTH MOUNTAIN AG COMMENTS July 9, 2018   Lean hog futures are under pressure from reports of over production in China along with concerns over US tariffs.  Fourth quarter futures continue to be at risk with domestic production projected to be above the historical average.   Corn futures have struggled as Asian demand has waned recently and US crop conditions are good to excellent in key areas.  Local PA basis has been softer, although we notice some regional mills have not updated their basis offerings this week.   Soybean delivered prices are under pressure as weather continues to point to potential high US yields in 2018.  Soybean meal continues to weaken, although at a slower pace than the rest of the soy complex.   Feeder cattle prices are currently trading 8% higher over last year, although the lack of...

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North Mountain Ag Comments

NORTH MOUNTAIN AG COMMENTS December 7, 2017 Lean hogs were softer in yesterday’s trading session as traders questioned recent gains in second quarter 2018 contracts. Corn futures have struggled to rally in the face of strong Brazilian exports. South American soybean crop expectations are being reduced base on La Nina’s weather pattern.  Despite the weather, there are still large global supplies relative to a year ago. Our clients trading grain futures will be happy to note that margin requires for corn have been reduced by $100 per contract. USDA has reduced the milk price forecast for 2018.  This is tough news considering the fact that Class III milk futures for 2018 are currently struggling to trade beyond the $14-$15 range. Marketing managers are reporting that wheat sales are below expectations.  Traders certainly appear to be reluctant to buy wheat,...

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Risk Management Comments March 27, 2017

RISK MANAGEMENT COMMENTS March 27, 2017   Lean Hogs Over the last six weeks, fourth quarter 17 lean hog futures have consistently run into resistance despite worries over belly inventory figures.  When you consider pork supplies looming over the industry with USDA projections of 2017 pork production at 25.6 billion pounds, it is understandable why investors are hesitant to express optimism.  Coverage through February 2018 looks attractive right now for producers that are managing their grain basis purchase targets in tandem with hog marketings. Dairy Despite concerns over the past three weeks regarding export sales, March milk futures are trading around $16.  Strong butter and cheese sales are supporting the market and providing optimism that with current trends, milk prices may average $2 more per cwt over last year.  On the supply side of the equation, USDA continues to...

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WEEKLY UPDATE APRIL 20, 2015

NORTH MOUNTAIN AG SERVICES WEEKLY UPDATE April 20, 2015 Will Hog Producers Lock in 2015 Profits? Hog producer profitability has been a popular topic that past week as the onset of warmer weather points to grilling season and much-anticipated increases in pork prices.  With a historically strong market in 2014, and speculation concerning industry expansion in 2015, it is worth taking a moment to think about targets for covering 2015 fourth quarter market hogs. As in every conversation we have in regards to hedging livestock, we want to start by taking a look at input costs.  Grain stock numbers tell us that with current stocks, this year will likely require planting of corn to be on time with fair weather conditions to keep end users on track to purchase fall 2015 corn below $4 per bushel.  While soybean planting...

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